Two-wheeler sector sees resilient growth against PVs and CVs in June

Wholesale volumes across various segments of the automobile industry in June 2024 are anticipated to reflect a subdued trend, primarily attributed to the absence of wedding dates, according to Anand Rathi report. Analysts project a mixed performance with two-wheeler (2W) volumes showing resilience, while passenger vehicles (PVs) and commercial vehicles (CVs) are expected to see slight declines. Tractor volumes are likely to remain flat during this period.

The overall scenario for June suggests a single-digit decline in wholesale volumes for listed two-wheeler companies, despite an overall growth trajectory led by Honda and its favorable base from the previous year.

Year-to-date (YTD) growth figures for the sector have been robust, registering a significant 15 per cent increase.

Looking ahead, industry experts foresee a promising outlook across segments, with two-wheelers expected to outperform other categories.

Projections for FY25 indicate an anticipated growth rate of 11 per cent for two-wheelers, 5 per cent for both PVs and CVs, and 4 per cent for tractors.

The positive sentiment underscores a bullish stance on the automotive sector, with key original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) like Hero MotoCorp, TVS Motors, and Mahindra & Mahindra identified as preferred picks.

In the two-wheeler segment, TVS Motors is anticipated to report a 3 per cent increase in volumes, contrasting with a 16 per cent decline expected for Royal Enfield. Hero MotoCorp and Bajaj Auto are likely to see marginal declines of 5 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively. The retail market faced challenges with a month-on-month (m/m) decline of 10-15 per cent in the absence of auspicious wedding dates.

For passenger vehicles, Mahindra & Mahindra is projected to lead with a 32 per cent rise in volumes, while market leader Maruti Suzuki is expected to maintain flat volumes. Tata Motors, however, may witness a 5 per cent decline in volumes. Variations in blended discounts were noted m/m, with increases for Maruti Suzuki but reductions for Tata Motors.

Commercial vehicle volumes are expected to experience a slight downturn, with VECV (Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles) likely to achieve a 6 per cent increase and Ashok Leyland a 4 per cent rise. Conversely, Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra are expected to see declines of 3 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively.

The tractor market is anticipated to show stable volumes, with both Mahindra & Mahindra and Escorts expected to report a modest 1 per cent increase.

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