Germany's EV sales must increase sixfold by 2030 to achieve goal, claims study

Germany needs a sharp turnaround in the momentum of its electric vehicle (EV) sales if it wants to stand a chance of meeting its emissions goals, according to a study.

Sales of new EVs would have to quadruple in the next three years and rise sixfold by 2030 in order to reach Germany’s goal of having 15 million of such cars on the road, according to a lobby group for the renewable energy sector.

A more likely outcome is the country will have only 10 million electric cars and will fall short of its greenhouse gas emissions goal by about a third, the group, known as BEE, said in a study. The transport sector has become a key laggard in Germany’s fight to reduce pollution.

“The German transport transition is on a crash course with the climate targets," the group’s president Simone Peter said.

BEE advocates curbing emissions through public transport incentives, ramping up e-fuels and agricultural biofuels and by imposing a general speed limit on the country’s highways. Even if Germany does succeed in getting the targeted amount of electric cars on the road, the transport sector is likely to fall short on its emissions goals and will need support from such other measures, the lobby group said.

Germany’s economy minister Robert Habeck also acknowledged last month that “we will not reach the 15 million goal by 2030" when visiting a Mercedes-Benz factory in Berlin. “But technical developments and, above all, social acceptance do not develop in a linear fashion," he said at the time.