Coronavirus fallout: Tesla delivery decline, Ford loss forecast

Tesla Inc.’s 2020 deliveries will drop, Ford Motor Co. will post its first annual loss since 2009 and General Motors Co. will burn through about $3.5 billion this year, according to an analyst seeing vehicle demand virtually stopping due to the coronavirus.

Joe Spak, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, slashed price targets for all 22 of the companies he covers and downgraded four of them in reports Monday that assess the impact of Covid-19. He described the cuts to his projections as “drastic, but reasonably plausible" and said his team actually worries they aren’t extreme enough.

“The situation is very fluid but it’s not hard to imagine that vehicle demand comes to a complete halt amid social distancing" and “a stressed consumer," Spak wrote. “And let’s be honest, buying a new vehicle may be a low priority for many once things settle down."

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Tesla shares plunged as much as 19% as of 10 a.m. in New York, while GM and Ford slumped as much as 14% and 11%, respectively.

Spak made the following predictions on major companies under his coverage:

Tesla

• Maintains equivalent of sell rating, cuts price target to $380 from $530
• Forecasts that deliveries will drop to 364,600 from almost 368,000 last year; company has guided for “comfortably" more than 500,000
• Sees 2020 net loss on GAAP basis of $104 million; previously estimated $1.53 billion profit
• Projects $920 million cash burn; previously forecast $1.7 billion positive free cash flow

GM

• Maintains buy rating, cuts price target to $33 from $49
• Forecasts 2020 adjusted Ebit of $2.8 billion; previously predicted $8.39 billion
• Sees 2020 EPS of $1.15; earlier estimate was $6.05
• Predicts $3.5 billion cash burn this year

Ford

• Maintains hold rating, cuts price target to $6.50 from $9
• Estimates 2020 total Ebit of $157 million; previously forecast $6.12 billion
• Forecasts 2020 auto Ebit of $422 million; earlier projection was $4.99 billion
• Sees 2020 EPS of 22-cent loss; prior estimate was $1.02 profit