Global auto sales forecasted at 88.3 million in 2024 amid supply chain risks

As the automotive industry braces for 2024, S&P Global Mobility predicts worldwide new vehicle sales to reach 88.3 million, marking a 2.8 per cent increase year-over-year. As per S&P Global Mobility, the forecast highlights a continued recovery in light vehicle output, contributing to inventory restocking across various regions.

However, the industry remains cautious about the potential risks, including consumer uncertainty, elevated vehicle pricing, and challenging credit conditions.

The recovery in global new light vehicle sales is anticipated to maintain momentum, driven by ongoing efforts to replenish inventories as supply chains and demand continue to recover.

Despite positive trends, S&P Global Mobility emphasizes concerns about consumer demand, particularly given high vehicle prices and complex credit and lending conditions.

Closing 2023 on a positive note, Western/Central European markets are projected to deliver 14.7 million units, reflecting a 12.8 per cent year-over-year increase.

Looking ahead to 2024, S&P Global Mobility forecasts 15.1 million units, a 2.9 per cent year-over-year growth. However, economic recession risks, tighter credit conditions, and tapering electric vehicle (EV) subsidies pose challenges.

US sales volumes are estimated to reach 15.9 million units in 2024, marking a 2.0 per cent increase from the projected 2023 level of 15.5 million units. Affordability issues, high interest rates, and slow-to-recede new vehicle prices create uncertainties for consumers.

With a recovery expected to reach 25.3 million units in 2023, Mainland China's market is set to continue benefiting from pent-up demand. For 2024, demand is forecasted at 26.4 million units, reflecting a further 4.2 per cent increase. The affordability of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) is expected to improve. Global light vehicle production in 2023 is expected to finish at 89.8 million units, a notable 9.0 per cent improvement over 2022.

S&P Global Mobility anticipates a slight decline in production levels for 2024, projecting 89.4 million units, down by 0.4 per cent. The industry navigates recovery after a turbulent period, and potential challenges include affordability concerns and uncertainties in consumer demand. Despite uncertainties in Europe and the US, the shift toward electrification appears unstoppable.

S&P Global Mobility forecasts global sales for battery electric passenger vehicles to reach 13.3 million units in 2024, accounting for an estimated 16.2 per cent of global passenger vehicle sales. Major markets are expected to drive this volume, emphasizing the continued momentum of electric vehicles in the automotive landscape.

While the industry anticipates growth, questions linger about charging infrastructure, battery supply chains, and policymaker support for a smoother transition to electric vehicles.

Key policies in China, Europe, and the US serve as crucial markers for the industry's green mobility future. As 2024 unfolds, the automotive sector remains vigilant, navigating a path toward recovery while addressing evolving challenges and opportunities in the global market.