EVs vs hybrids: Toyota Chairman's emission claims raise new questions

The question of whether electric vehicles (EVs) are cleaner than hybrid or internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles has, in the scientific community at least, been settled for some time. Numerous studies have concluded that EVs offer lower lifetime emissions than their petrol or hybrid counterparts. Yet, comments from Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda have reignited the debate—prompting a fresh examination of the facts and the context behind his remarks.

Toyoda's hybrid argument

In a recent interview with Automotive News, Akio Toyoda claimed that 27 million hybrid vehicles sold by Toyota have had the same emissions-reduction impact as nine million battery electric vehicles (BEVs). His key point was that, in Japan—where electricity is still largely generated from fossil fuels—producing and charging EVs could result in higher emissions than manufacturing and operating hybrids.

Toyoda advocated for a “multi-pathway" approach to decarbonisation, arguing that a diverse mix of powertrains—including more efficient petrol engines, hybrids, hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles, and EVs—was a more realistic route to reducing global emissions.

This multi-technology approach reflects Toyota's historical reserve towards an abrupt transition to all-electric power. But others argue that it will undermine the momentum required to shift away from oil, particularly when renewable energy capacity is growing very fast in much of the world.

The carbon debt debate

The key point of Toyoda's argument is the "carbon debt" that occurs in the making of EVs, especially when it comes to extracting and processing materials like lithium, cobalt, and nickel that are used in the EV battery. In fact, several studies demonstrate that EVs have a greater emissions impact than hybrids or ICE vehicles at the starting gate.

However, EVs offset that impact over time. In emissions on road use, they have a substantially lower emissions impact to begin with — especially so if being powered by renewables. Studies show that EVs are cleaner than a hybrid or ICE vehicle within two or three years of usage, depending on driving conditions and the electrical mix.

Electricity mix matters

Toyoda's case is strongest where coal or gas is prevalent in the power grid. Yet around the world, the landscape is shifting. India, for instance, is quickly expanding its solar and wind capacity, and the proportion of renewables in its electricity generation is increasing incrementally. As that trend persists, EVs' environmental benefit will grow.

In addition, next-generation EVs are progressively being built with fresh battery chemistries such as lithium iron phosphate (LFP), which use less rare minerals and have lower production emissions. This implies future EVs could start their life cycle with far less carbon debt.

The role of hybrids and PHEVs

Although battery-electric vehicles are generally regarded as the cleanest long-term option, hybrids and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) continue to play a vital bridging role—particularly in charging-scarce or patchy markets. PHEVs, if kept topped up, can run like electric cars on short journeys, lowering emissions for city driving.

However, hybrids use petrol for a majority of their operation and don't cut out tailpipe emissions. Therefore, they're still an interim measure and essentially not a terminus in the path to decarbonised mobility.

A global shift in perspective

Toyoda's comments may indeed be true for the distinct energy realities of any one region but when it comes to the world, we risk losing sight of wilderness as colossal global trends prevail on us. Renewable energy generation is increasing, battery technology is advancing, and EVs are getting cheaper and more available. All of these components provide compelling new reasons for a stronger push toward electrification.

Lastly, it is important to recognize that greenhouse gas emissions from petrol and diesel cars are still more than just emissions coming from the tail pipe. Greenhouse gases are also emitted from fossil fuel manufacture, processing, and transportation. These elements are sometimes excluded in the comparison of vehicle use.

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